(NewsNation) — Polling expert Nate Silver says Vice President Kamala Harris is currently favored to win the presidency but notes that the election is still weeks off and cautions that the race remains close.
“If you had the election today, then she would be favored,” Silver said Wednesday on NewsNation’s “Dan Abrams Live.” “But we should remember that polling is sometimes inaccurate, as it was in 2016 and 2020, as well.”
Silver, founder of polling aggregation website FiveThirtyEight, noted that Harris has at least put Democrats in a stronger position than former nominee Joe Biden.
His polling average shows Harris leading former President Donald Trump by 3 points nationally, a 7-point swing from when Biden dropped out of the race.
However, Silver said that Harris’ lead is within the normal 3-4 point margin of error for polls. He compared her position to having “a field goal lead at halftime of a football game.”
Chicago courtroom prepared to process mass arrests during DNC
The pollster also addressed the impact of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent candidacy, stating that Kennedy “now takes more votes from Trump than from Harris,” based on his analysis.
Regarding poll accuracy, Silver praised 2022 as “one of the most accurate years in history” for polling. He attributed predictions of a “red wave” that year to media narratives rather than polling errors.
Silver criticized his former website FiveThirtyEight for suspending its presidential forecast, suggesting the site’s model was “broken” and “not a credible product.”
The polling expert also defended Democrats’ decision to replace Biden as nominee, saying the party deserves “a lot of credit for doing this difficult thing.”
Silver’s comments come as he promotes his new book, “On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything,” which explores connections between gambling, risk-taking and various industries.
