Republicans have been dealt a major blow in their efforts to overhaul Nebraska’s Electoral College system, a move that could have ultimately cost Vice President Harris a critical vote in November.
State Sen. Mike McDonnell (R), seen as the key figure in determining whether Republicans would have enough support to move forward, came out against the effort in a statement Monday, all but dashing his party’s hopes of switching to a winner-takes-all system in the Cornhusker State.
“In recent weeks, a conversation around whether to change how we allocate our electoral college votes has returned to the forefront,” McDonnell said in a statement. “I respect the desire of some of my colleagues to have this discussion, and I have taken time to listen carefully to Nebraskans and national leaders on both sides of the issue. After deep consideration, it is clear to me that right now, 43 days from Election Day, is not the moment to make this change.”
Republicans for weeks had been pushing for the change, which almost certainly would have added an electoral vote to former President Trump’s tally. That single vote could have been critical, since one plausible path in the presidential contest would see Harris landing on exactly 270 electoral votes.
That scenario revolves around Harris carrying all of the states President Biden won in 2020, with the exceptions of Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. That would leave Harris with 269 electoral votes and Trump with 268. Harris would get to 270, enough to win the White House, if she, like Biden, carries Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.
Depriving Harris of that path would have paid dividends for the GOP. Trump and his allies reportedly courted key GOP votes in Nebraska to try to convince lawmakers to vote in favor of the change.
Gov. Jim Pillen (R) held a meeting with state senators and Nebraska Secretary of State Bob Evnen (R) last week, according to the Nebraska Examiner. Trump ally Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) also attended the meeting and has voiced his support for the effort.
But McDonnell on Monday said he had told Pillen he would “not change my long-held position and will oppose any attempted changes to our Electoral College system before the 2024 election.”
He added that he would encourage his colleagues in the Legislature next year to pass a constitutional amendment to alter the rule, which would then go before voters.
“I want to thank the voters who reached out to me for engaging in democracy and for showing America who Nebraskans are — fiercely independent, filled with pride about our great city of Omaha, and deeply devoted to the promise of American democracy,” McDonnell said.
Nebraska is unusual in that it splits its five electoral votes, handing out three based on the performance of each candidate in the state’s three congressional districts. Another two votes are awarded to whichever candidate outright wins the state. Maine is the other state that awards its electoral votes this way, doling out a total of four votes.
Efforts to pass an overhaul of the system already failed earlier this year. But the renewed focus on switching to a winner-takes-all system comes as Harris appears to be heading into November with a slight advantage over Trump. Preventing Democrats from securing that single electoral vote in Nebraska could ultimately swing the race for the former president.
A tie vote in the Electoral College would swing the contest to a House vote based on the majority of each state delegation. Republicans are almost certain to hold a majority in that contest.
“There is a mathematical universe in the upcoming 2024 presidential election where one electoral vote could be meaningful,” said Kevin Smith, a political science professor at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln.
Polling in Nebraska’s 2nd District has been limited, but the Harris campaign is almost certainly counting on winning that delegate, said Drew McCoy, president of Decision Desk HQ.
Democrats expressed relief at the news.
“Republicans were playing with fire and using the Constitution as kindling,” said Democratic strategist Jim Kessler. “Sen. McDonnell threw cold water on that idea.”
Even before McDonnell’s statement, Democrats in the state were skeptical that the change would happen.
Vince Powers, a Lincoln-based attorney and former Democratic state party chair, said he “cannot imagine” an Omaha-area lawmaker would vote to get rid of the split vote as Democrats rally support in the so-called blue dot.
He also noted skepticism that the race will ultimately hinge on the 2nd District.
“Every four years, there’s a scenario where people get out the map and say, ‘Look, this could be vote number 270,’ and it’s not going to happen,” Powers said.
Other Democrats saw the move as an act of desperation.
“I personally think that the 11th-hour awakening of trying to resurrect this shows that the right is worried about this electoral vote; they wouldn’t be bringing so much attention to it if they felt safe and secure about getting it,” said Nebraska-based consultant Brent Comstock, who works primarily with Democrats in the state, before McDonnell came out publicly against it.
Nebraska was not the only state where changes were being mulled. Last week, three Trump-aligned members of the Georgia State Election Board voted to require ballots to be hand-counted in the critical swing state, despite concerns raised by state officials and election workers over the legality of such a move and logistical challenges weeks before an election to enact it.
“The Trump Republican Party is like a petulant little kid who wants their way no matter what and will keep trying no matter what,” said Democratic strategist Mike Lux.
Updated at 2:49 p.m. EDT
