The Trump campaign is relying on a so far untested get-out-the-vote strategy ahead of November’s election that some Republicans view as a high-risk, high-reward gambit.
The campaign has worked alongside outside groups, including one backed by Elon Musk, to bolster its ground game and register and turn out low-propensity voters who may not be part of the former president’s fervent base. It marks a shift from past cycles, when get-out-the-vote efforts would be led by the Republican National Committee (RNC).
Campaign officials argued the change is allowing Republicans to reach voters more efficiently while focusing on those who may not be locked into supporting a candidate in November. But even some allies are unsure if it will pay off.
“I’m very worried about the get-out-the-vote effort on the Republican side,” said one GOP strategist who is supportive of former President Trump. “The legal challenge part of it, Republicans have been light-years better than 2020. Where I think I’m a little bit worried is the get-out-the-vote. They’re trying it a different way, sort of outsourcing it to different groups.”
The strategy is different from past campaigns operationally and strategically.
Operationally, the campaign can work closely with outside groups because of a Federal Election Commission opinion issued in March. The Trump campaign has taken advantage of the change, utilizing groups such as the Musk-backed Save America PAC, Turning Point USA and other organizations to carry out get-out-the-vote efforts like door-knocking. Operatives in the field are paid by those groups, allowing the Trump campaign to divert funds elsewhere.
Strategically, the campaign is focused on low- and mid-propensity voters who are known to support the former president, a Trump campaign official told The Hill.
While in past cycles the GOP would try to make contact with as many voters as possible, the 2024 Trump campaign is willing to skip knocking on a door if that person is someone already very likely to back the former president.
“They have a plan. The question is, is it going to work?” said Sean Spicer, a former White House press secretary during Trump’s first term. “An effective ground game is worth 2-3 points, and every one of these battlegrounds is within 2-3 points.”
Semafor reported that former RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel has told allies the party’s ground game is lacking. McDaniel resigned from her position earlier this year during the GOP primary process, clearing the way for Trump and his allies to remake party leadership.
Some of the groups working with the Trump campaign have faced scrutiny as well.
North Carolina and Michigan officials in August announced probes of Musk’s Save America PAC over potential violations around collection of personal data.
A spokesperson for Turning Point Action told Semafor the group had not hit its lofty goal of spending more than $100 million on its get-out-the-vote program, but would be more tailored toward voters in the swing states of Arizona and Wisconsin.
The Trump campaign official noted the former president’s successful 2016 bid was criticized for its lack of ground game, and the Biden campaign won in 2020 despite declining to knock on doors amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
“One of the big things is, people don’t understand it,” the official said of the strategy, saying it’s based on lessons learned from the 2020 campaign.
“We have pursued what we think is the best strategy given the environment we are in, given the resources we have and given the opportunities that existed before us,” the official added.
The official also noted Republicans have cut their deficit against Democrats in terms of registered voters in key battleground states such as Nevada and Pennsylvania, a potential sign of GOP strength on the ground.
Get-out-the-vote efforts are expected to be particularly critical in this year’s election, where polling shows a neck and neck race in all seven battlegrounds likely to determine the winner of the White House.
Strategists said the ground game in each state could prove critical as both campaigns work to turn out their base, as well as thousands of lower-propensity voters who could make the difference in states including Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
“The Democrats do a much better job of talking about the number of offices they have, etc., but what it comes down to isn’t the number of offices, it’s, ‘Can you turn your people out, through whatever means?’” Spicer said. “It doesn’t matter if I got a piece of mail or someone knocked on my door.”
The Harris campaign has long touted its infrastructure on the ground compared to the Trump operation, pointing to the dozens of offices Democrats have in battleground states and the hundreds of thousands of volunteers who have signed up since Vice President Harris replaced President Biden atop the Democratic ticket.
A Harris campaign official said volunteers and organizers have made more than 13 million phone calls and knocked on nearly 600,000 doors in Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada alone in the roughly two months since Harris entered the race.
Spokespeople for the Harris campaign did not respond to requests for comment about additional specifics regarding their get-out-the-vote operation.
With roughly 40 days until Election Day and early voting under way in multiple states, Harris’s allies have warned against getting complacent.
“She needs to make sure that her team is not comfortable on the ground — knock on more doors, and, yes, there are a small number of people in certain states that must be touched, and they’re not living in urban cities,” Donna Brazile, a former Democratic National Committee chair, said on ABC. “They’re living in rural areas, in the suburbs. She has to go directly to them.”
