Former President Trump is homing in on deep-blue New York, a state seen as critical to determining who controls the House next year.
Trump has made multiple campaigns stops to the Empire State, including a rally on Long Island last week that featured a vulnerable House GOP member up for reelection.
Republicans doubt the former president will defeat Vice President Harris in New York, but they say his frequent appearances could juice enthusiasm among the base and help the party keep control of its razor-thin majority in the lower chamber.
“For any former president to visit an area, it’s very motivating for the base as you head into Election Day,” said New York Republican strategist Matt Coleman, who is from Long Island and not affiliated with any campaign.
Trump’s most recent trip to the state coincided with the date he was set to be sentenced for his conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in his hush-money case that took place there. He kept the rally plan in place even after his sentencing was delayed until after the election.
The Republican nominee has made several trips to the city this year, especially as the criminal proceedings in New York against him advanced, and he has made appeals to voters to back him despite New York not voting for a Republican presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan in 1984.
“Nassau Coliseum, on Long Island, will be a really big deal tomorrow. It will be PACKED with Patriots! We have a real chance of winning, for the first time in many decades, New York,” Trump said in a Truth Social post ahead of the rally.
He also asked New Yorkers in the post, “What the hell do you have to lose?” — a sentiment he repeated during his rally as he pointed to issues like the economy and immigration.
While Trump’s hopes of flipping New York seem lofty, Republicans point to other underlying reasons for his visits there, namely to boost four House Republicans in the state whose results may decide which party controls the House: Reps. Mike Lawler, Anthony D’Esposito, Marc Molinaro and Brandon Williams.
All four first-term representatives eked out narrow wins in their elections in 2022 by no more than a few points and are prime targets for Democrats hoping to take back the House in November. They have an uphill battle, with Vice President Harris likely to comfortably win the state at the presidential level.
After some of the New York representatives took a bit longer than some of their other GOP colleagues to endorse Trump’s 2024 bid, D’Esposito appeared with Trump at the rally. The other three did not.
Some Republicans said even in New York, being in line with the top of the ticket could boost these members across the finish line.
“From a political standpoint, you want to be aligned with the top of your ticket no matter what. It’s helpful to you,” Coleman said. “General consultants and their campaign teams see this as a potential boon to them. I mean, how often does a Republican candidate for president pay attention to New York other than flying in and out of the city to do a fundraiser?”
Former Rep. John Faso (R-N.Y.), who represented a swing district in the House, said although the presidential race will drive turnout, the outcome of the competitive House races will not be dependent on the top of the ticket.
“It’s really a function of just making sure that you’re reaching the targeted voters that are going to turn out in a high turnout presidential election,” Faso said, noting some of these representatives’ voters will be pro-Trump and some will be anti-Trump.
But Trump did make a shift just ahead of the rally that could be critical in the House races: throwing his support behind lifting the $10,000 cap on the state and local tax (SALT) deduction that he originally signed as part of his 2017 tax cut law. The issue is key for middle-class voters who pay high property taxes in places like New York.
Lawler’s congressional office issued a statement praising Trump’s shift after the announcement.
Faso said the issue is particularly potent near the New York metropolitan area but is less impactful further away from the city.
D’Esposito’s 4th District on Long Island includes Nassau County, known for particularly high property taxes.
But New York Republican strategist Jay Townsend expressed concern about the reaction to Trump’s appearances in the suburban areas where he is a liability. He said he would advise these House members to keep their distance from Trump.
“Trump will carry the rural areas of New York, but he is polarizing and toxic in suburban New York, and he would lose an election to Bernie Madoff if he’s on the ballot in New York City,” Townsend said.
And D’Esposito specifically may have an additional obstacle in his district following a New York Times report that he had an affair and had his fiancée’s daughter and the woman he was having the affair with on his district office’s payroll. D’Esposito slammed the report as a “hit piece” and argued that his personal life has not interfered with his ability to deliver results for his district.
But the timing of the report not long before the election could increase his vulnerability, Townsend said.
“No candidate wants a story like that in the final six weeks of a campaign,” he said.
