Former President Trump is seeking to put Vice President Harris on the back foot as both candidates respond to the devastation unleashed by Hurricane Helene.
Trump visited Georgia on Monday, where he knocked the federal government’s response to the storm. His visit comes days after he criticized Harris and President Biden over the crisis. Harris, meanwhile, cut her planned West Coast trip short and will be briefed on the disaster at the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) headquarters.
The fallout from the storm has the potential to roil the election, as two of the states hit especially hard — Georgia and North Carolina — are key battlegrounds that could potentially tip the scales in the race for the White House.
“Millions are without power. There’s tens of thousands of people who have lost everything one month from an election in two of the most important battleground states,” said Ford O’Connell, a Republican strategist.
Brutal floods and winds have swept through the Southeast in the days since Helene made landfall in Florida late last week, tearing through infrastructure and leaving millions without power. The death toll has approached 100, according to The Associated Press, as the storm racks the Sunshine State, Georgia, the Carolinas and beyond.
The storm has major humanitarian impacts — and it also brings political complications in the closing weeks of the election cycle, with just more than a month to go until Election Day.
Georgia and North Carolina are both being looked at as critical toss-ups for this year’s presidential race. The fast-tracked Harris bid has gained ground in the battlegrounds, and Trump is up by just a fraction of a percentage point in both states, according to the latest polling averages from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill.
Trump won both states in 2016. He won just North Carolina in 2020, while Biden eked out a win in Georgia.
Polls show a narrow race playing out in the two Southeastern battlegrounds. The Decision Desk HQ average shows Trump leading in North Carolina by 0.5 percentage points, while in Georgia he leads by 0.2 percentage points.
“North Carolina and Georgia are likely to be decided by tens of thousands of voters,” O’Connell said. “It’s going to have a real impact on those states’ voting.”
One of the areas hit hardest by the storm is Asheville, N.C., a Democratic stronghold that could be key to a potential Harris win. If voters there don’t or aren’t able to cast their ballots, it could make the Tar Heel State “nearly impossible” for Harris to win, said Democratic strategist Fred Hicks.
Trump has a slightly bigger 2-point lead in Florida, which Democrats have been increasingly bullish about possibly flipping this fall.
Voters’ eyes will be on the presidential candidates’ responses to the crisis, strategists said.
At a campaign stop in Pennsylvania on Sunday, Trump accused Biden of “sleeping” through the crisis, as the incumbent spent the weekend at his home base in Rehoboth Beach, Del., and argued Harris “ought to be down in the area.”
The former president visited Valdosta, Ga., on Monday, where he toured storm damage and expressed support for those impacted by the disaster. He said he’s spoken with Elon Musk about providing Starlink internet service for those without power, and claimed without evidence that Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) was “having a hard time getting the president on the phone.”
Kemp, however, said Sunday that he had spoken to Biden about the hurricane.
“It is Georgia, and it’s a swing state, so he gets to strategically do two things, make another visit to a state that is critical to him in the election, and to put on the visual of caring for the people there,” said Audrey Haynes, a professor of political science at the University of Georgia.
For her part, Harris opened a Las Vegas, Nev., rally on Sunday night with a somber note about Helene, thanking first responders and sending well wishes to those affected by the storms. After her event wrapped up, her team announced a last-minute schedule change, canceling planned campaign stops to return to the capital for a FEMA briefing.
Harris will look “presidential” with her FEMA visit, Haynes said, but she could benefit from the optics of making an eventual visit to one of the affected areas.
Harris intends to visit impacted communities “as soon as it is possible without disrupting emergency response operations,” a White House official said. Biden has also said he expects to visit North Carolina by Wednesday or Thursday this week, noting that if “there’s an entourage, it can be disruptive.”
Democrats have praised the Biden administration’s response, pointing out that the president and the vice president have to time their visits carefully as to not become a logistical burden to recovery efforts on the ground.
It’s “smart” for Harris and Biden to hold off on making an immediate visit, argued North Carolina-based Democratic strategist Morgan Jackson.
“Most true leaders understand that when there is a crisis, the effort to land a president or vice president on the ground with all of the manpower it takes causes more of a problem than it does a help,” said Antjuan Seawright, a Democratic strategist.
But that hasn’t stopped Republicans from attacking them.
An email from the Trump campaign on Monday touted Trump’s trip to Georgia and accused Harris of being “missing in action.”
“Neither Harris nor Biden was in the hurricane center over the weekend. That doesn’t send a good message to the people on the ground,” O’Connell said.
“[Trump] showed leadership,” he said. “It was good politics and it was also smart from a humanitarian perspective.”
Seawright knocked Trump’s visit as “political,” noting the effects won’t be felt the same way on the ground from a former president
“Quite frankly, I think the visit from Trump should be viewed as more political than not because there is nothing he can do as a candidate for president at this point,” he said.
Jackson knocked Trump’s attempts to call out Harris, arguing the former president was trying to twist the tragedy to his “personal benefit” politically.
Haynes argued Trump’s attempts to put Harris on defense are a sign of possible distress at the latest polls.
Another state the storm has impacted is Florida, once considered a quintessential battleground state. Hurricanes in past election years have played a role in the state, like in 2004, when the state was hit by four hurricanes during the presidential campaign. Then-President George W. Bush visited the state in his capacity as president, while his Democratic challenger, then-Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), visited after he was invited by then-Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.).
In 2018, Senate candidate and then-Gov. Rick Scott (R), who is up for reelection in the Senate this year, showcased his response in the midst of hurricane season.
“If you want to talk about hurricane [recovery] and Rick Scott, Rick Scott is going to win every single day and place,” O’Connell said.
On Monday, Scott called on the Senate to reconvene to consider a Hurricane Helene supplemental aid package.
Still, Florida Democrats are hitting Trump and Scott in the wake of the storm as they face reelection in the state. During a call with reporters on Monday, Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried slammed the state’s GOP leadership over their stance on climate change and insurance.
“What this moment is doing is creating a perfect storm in our state to say we have seen Republican leadership in our state continue to fail the people,” Fried said. “And what Donald Trump says, if it’s ever coherent, has no bearing on this because he too just doesn’t understand the needs of the people of this state.”
There are still four weeks before Election Day, and some are optimistic that the states can rebound quickly. But with flooded roads, postal service disruptions and many in the Southeast displaced from their homes, Helene could hamper voters trying to cast their ballots both by mail and at polling sites.
It could also dull voter motivation to get out the vote, Hicks noted. Early voting is set to start in both states in the middle of next month.
On the flip side, Haynes suggested the crisis could energize affected Americans.
“Some people may be motivated to vote because of this, because finally, they’re like, ‘Oh my gosh, these storms are coming inland. This is not normal,’” Haynes said.
