(NewsNation) — The United States currently carries nearly $35.7 trillion in federal debt, which is only expected to grow regardless of whether former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris is elected next month, political analysts believe.
A recent analysis completed by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget found that the national debt could grow by $3.5 trillion over the next 10 years under Harris.
The Democrat has vowed at campaign rallies that her economic plan, which focuses on the middle class, would be fully offset by her plan to raise the corporate tax rate and her plans for taxing the wealthy, the Associated Press reported.
The same analysis found that the national debt could add another $7.5 trillion onto the national debt should Trump be elected – a number that could grow to $15.2 trillion under some scenarios, the AP reported.
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What is the US national debt?
In basic terms, the national debt is the amount of money that the country has borrowed to cover the outstanding balance of its expenses over time.
According to the U.S. Treasury, in each fiscal year when the country’s revenue does not cover its spending, a budget deficit is created. The federal government borrows money to cover the deficit by selling securities such as Treasury bonds, bills, notes and other securities.
The national debt is the ongoing accumulation of this spending plus the interest that is owed to investors who purchased the securities, the government says.
How the US national debt breaks down
According to an analysis completed by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, the $35 trillion of debt owed by the United States equals the value of the economies of countries such as China, Germany, Japan, India and the United Kingdom.
It also amounts to $266,000 being owed by each American household or $104,000 worth of debt for every person living in the United States.
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The organization found that even if each U.S. household contributed $1,000 per month to pay off the debt, it would take 22 years to pay off. It also estimates that the $35 trillion would cover four years of college education for every graduating American high school senior for the next 103 years.
The federal debt tally has grown year-over-year, including from 2023, when, according to figures, the U.S. government spent $6.1 trillion while taking in only $4.4 trillion from sources such as corporate tax, payroll tax and individual income tax. This resulted in a deficit of $1.7 trillion.
Meanwhile, the government continued to pump money into expenditures such as Medicaid and Obamacare ($707 million), Medicare ($832 million) as well as other mandatory spending programs on which federal officials doled out $893 million. Social security topped the spending at $1.32 trillion, according to federal figures.
Meanwhile, interest payments on the national debt were expected to reach $892 billion in 2024, according to reporting by Econofact, which is more than the U.S. was projected to spend on defense. It is almost one-third higher than the interest payments totaled in 2023, which is a combination of higher interest rates and a jump in the amount of debt the country is carrying, the report indicated.
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Although interest rates are expected to drop in the coming years as inflation falls off, the Congressional Budget Office expects that the amount the country is paying in interest as a percent of the Gross Domestic Product will just continue to grow, the Econofact report indicated.
In 2023, the Congressional Office found that the debt held by the public amounted to $26.2 trillion, which represents 97% of the GDP, according to the Peterson Foundation.
Where does the national debt go from here?
The Associated Press reported that as of this month, the federal debt held by the public has risen to more than $28 trillion – which is expected to only get higher as the U.S. cannot generate enough revenue to keep up with its spending.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget found that the country’s debt load will only get bigger regardless of who wins the White House in next month’s election.
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Other forecasts show that Trump’s pledge to have other countries pay tariffs would not generate nearly enough revenue to cover spending.
One analysis showed that Trump tariffs could generate $2.7 trillion, but that at the same time, tax cuts would cost the country an estimated $9.2 trillion with an additional $350 million being spent on securing the border and a promised mass deportation of immigrants who entered the U.S. illegally.
One analysis projects that if elected, Harris would introduce $4.6 trillion in tax cuts but that an estimated $4 trillion that could be generated through a higher corporate tax rate would not cover the spending.
“Debt would continue to grow faster than the economy under either candidate’s plans and in most scenarios would grow faster and higher than under current law,” the report by the Committee for A Responsible Federal Budget concluded.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
