Swing state spotlight: A look at the 7 battleground states

(NewsNation) — With just days to go, the 2024 election is wide open and voters in seven battleground states will ultimately decide the next president.

Polls show a dead heat between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.

NewsNation and Nexstar affiliates across the country have been following the campaigns, highlighting the most important voter trends in the “Swing State Spotlight” series.

Here’s what to know about the race in the seven swing states: Arizona, Georgian, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Arizona

Arizona went blue in 2020 for the first time since Bill Clinton in 1996. Once considered a Republican stronghold, Arizona moderates have drifted away from the GOP and the Phoenix suburbs have swung left.

With that said, more registered voters identify as Republicans (36%) than Democrats (29%) in Arizona, which means the 35% of people who identify as something else could ultimately decide the election.

“At this point, I think Arizona is going to be solidly purple. I think we are going to go back and forth,” Sarama Klar, a political scientist at the University of Arizona, told NewsNation in a recent interview.

All eyes will be on Maricopa County on Election Night. It’s one of the largest voting jurisdictions in the nation and accounts for over 60% of Arizona’s registered voters.

Georgia

As recently as 2016, Georiga was not considered a key battleground state. That changed in 2020. After defeating Clinton by more than five points, Trump lost to Joe Biden by less than half a point in the Peach State.

Democrats were able to turn Georgia blue thanks to a rapidly growing and increasingly diverse population in the suburbs around metro Atlanta.

Trump has recently tried to improve his relationship with the state’s popular Republican Governor Brian Kemp. Earlier this month, Trump praised Kemp’s response to Hurricane Helene and said the governor was “doing a fantastic job.”

Georgia will also provide insight into which way Black voters are leaning. Harris is expected to carry that group but recent polling suggests the margin could be closer than in recent elections.

Michigan

Part of the so-called “blue wall,” Democrats won Michigan in every election from 1992 to 2012. Trump broke that streak in 2016 after Clinton failed to fully mobilize her party’s base.

Biden flipped the state blue back in 2020 thanks to improved turnout in heavily Democratic cities like Detroit and Ann Arbor — voters that will be key if Harris is to repeat in Michigan.

The state’s 200,000 Muslim registered voters could also play a key role in deciding the outcome. Over the past year, Muslims’ support for the Democratic Party has dropped, in part, due to the Biden administration’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war

In Michigan’s Democratic primary, more than 100,000 people voted “uncommitted” — a potential warning sign for Democrats in November.

Nevada

Republicans haven’t won Nevada since George W. Bush in 2004 but it has become closer in recent elections, particularly in Clark County, the main population center.

Barack Obama carried the state by more than six points in 2012. Four years later, Hillary Clinton won by just over two points. Biden maintained that margin in 2020 but Trump shrank the gap in Clark County (metro Las Vegas), home to nearly three-quarters of the population.

Both candidates have tried to appeal to the state’s leisure and hospitality workers, promising to eliminate taxes on tips. According to recent polling, 71% of Nevada voters support that idea.

Hispanic voters will also play a major role. They make up a third of the population in Clark County and polling suggests Trump has been gaining ground, particularly with Hispanic men.

North Carolina

North Carolina is the only swing state that Trump won in 2020 and polling shows him favored this time around. In fact, Democrats have only won the Tar Heel State once since 1980 — Obama in 2008.

But population gains in blue areas like Mecklenburg and Wake Counties have changed the math in the state, giving Democrats their best chance in years.

To put the shift in perspective: Obama won Mecklenburg County by roughly 100,000 votes in 2012. Eight years later, Biden won that same county by about 200,000 votes.

The state is also reeling from Hurricane Helene, which hit western North Carolina especially hard. It remains to be seen what impact, if any, that will have on Election day.

Pennsylvania

The outcome in Pennsylvania tends to predict the eventual winner. In 10 of the last 12 elections, the winner of Pennsylvania has gone on to the presidency.

Part of that is because the state is a microcosm of the country as a whole — home to two major cities, dozens of rural counties and education levels that generally mirror the American electorate.

Fracking — the process of extracting oil and natural gas from underground rock formations — has become a popular debate topic in the Keystone State as voters weigh the economic trade-offs versus the environmental concerns.

Pennsylvania is the second-largest natural gas producer behind Texas. The state has become a central location for discussions about the nation’s energy future.

Wisconsin

Wisconsin is another blue wall state that Trump was able to flip in 2016. Before that, no Republican had won there since Ronald Reagan in 1984.

Biden flipped it back in 2020 and was able to improve on Clinton’s performance in the red-leaning Milwaukee suburbs, known as the WOW counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington).

Harris will try to run up the score in urban areas like Dane and Milwaukee counties, while Trump will try to do better with suburban moderates and maintain his advantage in rural parts of the state.