Senate Democrats are facing an increasingly tough road to keeping their majority in the upper chamber as races in crucial swing states tighten with just two weeks until Election Day.
The path to 51 seats was always going to be a long shot for Democrats, who are facing a difficult Senate map featuring multiple incumbents in solidly GOP territory.
But now Democrats are also dealing with Republican candidates in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin quickly closing the gap. The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report this month shifted both races from “lean Democrat” to “toss-up.” Along with Michigan, the “blue wall” states are now all in the “toss-up” category.
This is heaping pressure on the party to hold the fort in the final stretch.
“This is never going to be easy,” Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) told reporters Tuesday at the Capitol. “But I believe these races are essentially tied. … To me, it feels like it’s 50-50 all the time.”
“This is an unpredictable world. I don’t know what’s going to happen,” said Bennet, who previously served as chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
Democrats have long acknowledged the problems of the map. Republicans need to win only two more seats to control the chamber, and Sen. Joe Manchin’s (I-W.Va.) retirement certainly will put that state in the Republican column.
All four seats rated as “toss-ups” by Cook are held by Democrats. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is fighting to keep his seat in a state that has trended solidly red in recent years, and Cook last month shifted Montana, where Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is fighting for a fourth term, to “lean Republican.”
Tightening polls in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as well as for the open seat in Michigan, are exacerbating those problems.
According to Decision Desk HQ/The Hill, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) leads Republican challenger Eric Hovde by only 1.8 points after leading by about 5 points a month ago. In Pennsylvania, DDHQ/The Hill’s average of polls shows Sen. Bob Casey (D) leading Republican David McCormick by 3.3 points, down from a 10-point margin in August.
Strategists on both sides of the aisle say Republicans are closing the gap between their numbers and former President Trump’s, who is expected to run ahead of all of them. This has given Republicans life at an opportune time, though they caution the races have some differences.
“We have all the momentum [in Wisconsin and Michigan] … and compared to where we were six months ago, we’re in a very strong spot,” one GOP operative said. “Pennsylvania’s different. It’s a really close race. It’s hard to know. Casey’s just there. He doesn’t look liberal, and he’s been there for a long time.”
A Democratic operative involved in Senate races told The Hill that Republicans have successfully brought members of their base home.
“Over the spring and summer, GOP-leaning men were telling pollsters they were independents, but they’re Republicans and they’ve come home to being Republicans. The GOP ad campaign has been about doing that and they have successfully done that,” the operative said, pointing to spots about transgender rights and immigration.
“Republicans are not trying to pull off swing voters. They are all about consolidating their base and making sure a guy who’s deciding between voting for Trump, voting for [Robert F. Kennedy Jr.] or not at all shows up and votes for Trump,” the operative continued.
Pennsylvania is the latest to see a tightening in recent surveys, with McCormick finally being within shouting distance of Trump after struggling for months to bring some of the former president’s supporters fully behind him.
Political observers have also pointed to Casey’s recent ad showing off that he agrees with the ex-president on trade and tariffs as a sign of the shifting tide in the Keystone State. Some Democrats, however, thought it was smart for the three-term senator, especially given the current state of play.
“I don’t care who’s kicking his shins,” said TJ Rooney, a former chair of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, said of the ad. “That ad is masterful in accomplishing that mission, which is to communicate a hope for consensus and progress as a means to communicate with undecided voters.”
Baldwin has a similar one running in her state.
A win in any of the three battleground races is considered gravy this cycle for the GOP, with either Montana or Ohio likely deciding the majority.
Republican Tim Sheehy remains favored to take down Tester in Montana, with Democrats admitting a win there is a steep climb.
In Ohio, Brown is locked in a tough battle with Republican Bernie Moreno, who has been on helium watch over the past month, with public and internal GOP polls showing he is closing in on the three-term senator.
Faced with these sore spots on the map, Democrats have tried to give themselves a shot to nab an upset in GOP-held territory. Headlining that list is Texas, where Rep. Colin Allred (D) is trying to fulfill progressive dreams and take down Sen. Ted Cruz (R), and Nebraska, where Sen. Deb Fischer (R) has found herself in a sudden battle with independent Dan Osborn.
The Nebraska race is particularly galling to some GOP operatives, especially after the Senate Leadership Fund, a group run by allies of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), announced it was spending $3 million in the final stretch to boost Fischer, who is a member of McConnell’s leadership team.
“If Trump’s going to win your state by a comfortable margin, you shouldn’t need a bailout,” a second GOP operative said, noting that any of David McCormick, Eric Hovde or former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) would benefit from that spending. “That’s just laziness.”
However, a win in either state is still viewed as highly unlikely, putting the onus on Democrats to hold their ground in the battleground states.
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesperson Tommy Garcia said Democrats are in position to do just that.
“Senate Democrats are in the strongest possible position to defend our majority – we have better candidates, stronger campaigns and our candidates are attracting support from voters of every political persuasion. Senate Republicans’ flawed candidates are hurting their prospects across the entire Senate map — and while the NRSC is slashing advertising, Senate Democrats are going on offense,” he said in a statement.
Strategists, meanwhile, expect things to remain close.
“The presidential race will be very close in all three states, and with the continued polarization and throwing on the team’s jersey of what our politics is now, it shouldn’t surprise us that these things are getting tight,” the second GOP operative said.
“At the end of the day you have to ask which of these three [candidates] will run ahead of Trump, if any of them,” they continued, saying it is unlikely that will happen. “And then the question is: how close can they actually run? … I would be surprised if any of them win. It will not surprise me if all three are close.”
Democrats agree.
“The Democrats have win scenarios if Harris wins, but also if Trump wins,” the Democratic operative involved in Senate races said. “These Republicans can only win if Trump wins.”
